Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict relapse in adults with remitted depression in primary care: secondary analysis of pooled individual participant data from multiple studies

Autor: Simon Gilbody, Dean McMillan, Bob Phillips, Kym I E Snell, Richard D Riley, David A Richards, Jaime Delgadillo, Shehzad Ali, Chris Salisbury, Lewis W Paton, Lucinda Archer, Peter A Coventry, Stephen Pilling, Andrew S Moriarty, Joshua E J Buckman, Nick Meader, Carolyn A Chew Graham
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: BMJ Mental Health, Vol 27, Iss 1 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2755-9734
DOI: 10.1136/bmjment-2024-301226
Popis: Background Relapse of depression is common and contributes to the overall associated morbidity and burden. We lack evidence-based tools to estimate an individual’s risk of relapse after treatment in primary care, which may help us more effectively target relapse prevention.Objective The objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict risk of relapse of depression in primary care.Methods Multilevel logistic regression models were developed, using individual participant data from seven primary care-based studies (n=1244), to predict relapse of depression. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping, and generalisability was explored using internal–external cross-validation.Findings Residual depressive symptoms (OR: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.20), p
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