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BackgroundThe reasons for the recurrence of common bile duct stones (CBDS) in elderly patients after choledocholithotomy are still unclear. This study aims to establish a prediction model for CBDS recurrence by identifying risk factors.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of 1804 elderly patients aged 65 years and above who were diagnosed to have CBDS and were admitted to Nanjing First Hospital between January 1, 2010, and January 1, 2021. According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, 706 patients were selected for the final analysis. The patients were assigned to two groups according to the presence or absence of CBDS recurrence, and their clinical data were then statistically analyzed. Subsequently, a prediction model and nomogram were developed, evaluating effectiveness using the concordance index (C-index).ResultsOf the 706 elderly patients, 62 patients experienced CBDS recurrence after surgery, resulting in a recurrence rate of 8.8%. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that prior history of cholecystectomy (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.931, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.051–3.547, p = 0.034), white blood cell (WBC) count ≥11.0 × 109/L (HR = 2.923, 95% CI: 1.723–4.957, p |
