The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions

Autor: Annika Drews, Torben Schmith, Tian Tian, Yiguo Wang, Marion Devilliers, Noel S. Keenlyside, Shuting Yang, Steffen M. Olsen
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 16, Pp n/a-n/a (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 1944-8007
0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109415
Popis: Abstract We investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter 2013/2014 as initial conditions and evaluate ensemble predictions of the two systems in the following decade. In addition, we perform ensemble pacemaker experiments where the models are forced toward observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the SPNA from November 2014 through December 2019. The pacemaker experiments show improved skill along the Atlantic Water pathway, compared with the standard decadal predictions, and we therefore conclude that the correct description of the ocean in the SPNA is the key. The enhanced skill is most prominent in subsurface salinity in the form of propagating anomalies.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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