Evaluating the direct effect of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Autor: Maxime Fajgenblat, Geert Molenberghs, Johan Verbeeck, Lander Willem, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Christel Faes, Niel Hens, Patrick Deboosere, Geert Verbeke, Thomas Neyens
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2024
Předmět:
Zdroj: Communications Medicine, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2024)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2730-664X
DOI: 10.1038/s43856-024-00600-0
Popis: Abstract Background Across Europe, countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination. Evaluating the effectiveness of such interventions is of particular relevance to policy-makers. Methods We leverage almost three years of available data across 38 European countries to evaluate the effectiveness of governmental responses in controlling the pandemic. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that flexibly relates daily COVID-19 incidence to past levels of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions as summarised in the Stringency Index. Specifically, we use a distributed lag approach to temporally weight past intervention values, a tensor-product smooth to capture non-linearities and interactions between both types of interventions, and a hierarchical approach to parsimoniously address heterogeneity across countries. Results We identify a pronounced negative association between daily incidence and the strength of non-pharmaceutical interventions, along with substantial heterogeneity in effectiveness among European countries. Similarly, we observe a strong but more consistent negative association with vaccination levels. Our results show that non-linear interactions shape the effectiveness of interventions, with non-pharmaceutical interventions becoming less effective under high vaccination levels. Finally, our results indicate that the effects of interventions on daily incidence are most pronounced at a lag of 14 days after being in place. Conclusions Our Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach reveals clear negative and lagged effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on confirmed COVID-19 cases across European countries.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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