The framing of time-dependent machine learning models improves risk estimation among young individuals with acute coronary syndromes

Autor: Luiz Sérgio Fernandes de Carvalho, Gustavo Alexim, Ana Claudia Cavalcante Nogueira, Marta Duran Fernandez, Tito Barbosa Rezende, Sandra Avila, Ricardo Torres Bispo Reis, Alexandre Anderson Munhoz Soares, Andrei Carvalho Sposito
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-27776-0
Popis: Abstract Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a common cause of death in individuals older than 55 years. Although younger individuals are less frequently seen with ACS, this clinical event has increasing incidence trends, shows high recurrence rates and triggers considerable economic burden. Young individuals with ACS (yACS) are usually underrepresented and show idiosyncratic epidemiologic features compared to older subjects. These differences may justify why available risk prediction models usually penalize yACS with higher false positive rates compared to older subjects. We hypothesized that exploring temporal framing structures such as prediction time, observation windows and subgroup-specific prediction, could improve time-dependent prediction metrics. Among individuals who have experienced ACS (n global_cohort = 6341 and nyACS = 2242), the predictive accuracy for adverse clinical events was optimized by using specific rules for yACS and splitting short-term and long-term prediction windows, leading to the detection of 80% of events, compared to 69% by using a rule designed for the global cohort.
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
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