Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: 'Preference Ordering' Using CGE Analysis
| Autor: | Xianbai Ji, Pradumna B. Rana, Wai-Mun Chia, Changtai Li |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | East Asian Economic Review, Vol 22, Iss 2, Pp 177-215 (2018) |
| Druh dokumentu: | article |
| ISSN: | 2508-1640 2508-1667 |
| DOI: | 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342 |
| Popis: | Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy. |
| Databáze: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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