Waist circumference and glycaemia are strong predictors of progression to diabetes in individuals with prediabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: 4-year prospective cohort study in Malawi.

Autor: Wisdom P Nakanga, Amelia C Crampin, Joseph Mkandawire, Louis Banda, Rob C Andrews, Andrew T Hattersley, Moffat J Nyirenda, Lauren R Rodgers
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2023
Předmět:
Zdroj: PLOS Global Public Health, Vol 3, Iss 9, p e0001263 (2023)
Druh dokumentu: article
ISSN: 2767-3375
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001263
Popis: Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the highest increase in the number of people with diabetes worldwide. However, the drivers of diabetes in this region have not been clearly elucidated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of diabetes and the predictors of progression in a population-based cohort with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in Malawi. We used data from an extensive rural and urban non-communicable disease survey. One hundred seventy-five, of 389 individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) at baseline, age 48 ±15 years and body mass index 27.5 ±5.9 kg/m2 were followed up for a median of 4.2 years (714 person-years). Incidence rates were calculated, and predictors of progression to diabetes were analysed using multivariable logistic regression models, with overall performance determined using receiver operator characteristics (ROC) curves. The median follow-up was 4.2 (IQR 3.4-4.7) years. Forty-five out of 175 (26%) progressed to diabetes. Incidence rates of diabetes were 62.9 per 1000 person-years 95% CI, 47.0-84.3. The predictors of progression were higher; age (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, P = 0.046), BMI (OR 1.98, P = 0.001), waist circumference (OR 2.50,P
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