Beyond Monte Carlo: Harnessing Diffusion Models to Simulate Financial Market Dynamics

Autor:	Lesniewski, Andrew, Trigila, Giulio
Rok vydání:	2024
Předmět:	Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence Computer Science - Computational Engineering Finance and Science Quantitative Finance - Portfolio Management
Druh dokumentu:	Working Paper
Popis:	We propose a highly efficient and accurate methodology for generating synthetic financial market data using a diffusion model approach. The synthetic data produced by our methodology align closely with observed market data in several key aspects: (i) they pass the two-sample Cramer - von Mises test for portfolios of assets, and (ii) Q - Q plots demonstrate consistency across quantiles, including in the tails, between observed and generated market data. Moreover, the covariance matrices derived from a large set of synthetic market data exhibit significantly lower condition numbers compared to the estimated covariance matrices of the observed data. This property makes them suitable for use as regularized versions of the latter. For model training, we develop an efficient and fast algorithm based on numerical integration rather than Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is tested on a large set of equity data. Comment: 27 pages
Databáze:	arXiv
Externí odkaz:	http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.00036 Zobrazit plný text záznamu View this record from Arxiv