| Autor: |
Eisenhauer, Philipp, Gabler, Janoś, Janys, Lena, Walsh, Christopher |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Druh dokumentu: |
Working Paper |
| Popis: |
The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the true parameters. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policy-making as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in the models's policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations obtained from using different formal rules of decision-making under uncertainty. |
| Databáze: |
arXiv |
| Externí odkaz: |
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