Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
| Autor: | Barzon, Giacomo, Manjunatha, Karan Kabbur Hanumanthappa, Rugel, Wolfgang, Orlandini, Enzo, Baiesi, Marco |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | J. Phys. A 2020 |
| Druh dokumentu: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1088/1751-8121/abd59e |
| Popis: | By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalised by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment $H$ is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries. Comment: v2: published version; more countries analysed |
| Databáze: | arXiv |
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