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Das Quantencomputing als fundamental ungleichartige Form der Datenverarbeitung verspricht, eine Lösung für einige der komplexesten Problemstellungen in Wissenschaft und Industrie zu sein. Angetrieben durch entsprechende Investitionen großer Unternehmen steht die Technologie heute am Übergang von der Grundlagenforschung zur realen Anwendung. Aufgrund des hohen disruptiven Potentials und der rapiden Entwicklungen sollte jede Führungskraft ein grundlegendes Bewusstsein für Quantencomputing entwickeln. Obwohl bereits erste industrielle Verwendungen von Quantencomputer existieren, ist die wissenschaftliche Literatur bezüglich möglicher wirtschaftlicher Anwendungen und Auswirkungen rar. Die vorliegende Arbeit soll diese Lücke in Form eines verkürzten Foresight-Prozesses füllen, welcher auf Literaturrecherchen und Experteninterviews beruht. Die wahrscheinlichste zukünftige Rolle von Quantencomputern ist dabei die Nutzung für spezielle Problemstellungen in der computerbasierten Optimierung und Simulation, sowie die Kombination mit Machine Learning. Basierend auf diesen Fähigkeiten könnten die am meisten betroffenen Industrien der Finanzsektor, das Gesundheitswesen und Materialdesign, der Logistiksektor, sowie die Fahrzeugindustrie sein. Bereits heute existierende Produkte und Dienstleistungen von Anbietern von Quantencomputing führen in Richtung Cloud-basierter und hardwareunabhängiger As-a-Service Lösungen. Diese ermöglichen dem Nutzer eine ressourcensparende und flexible Anwendung, ohne der Notwendigkeit extensiver quantenphysikalischer Kenntnisse. Ausgehend von den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen wird strategischen Managern ein Vorgehen präsentiert, wie erste Berührungspunkte mit Quantencomputing geschaffen, und die Technologie gegebenenfalls längerfristig im Unternehmen implementiert werden kann. Solving impossible tasks in just a few hours, obtaining answers to the most complex problems of science and society, and enabling applications for companies of all kinds. Those are some of the promised potentials of quantum computing, which represents a fundamentally distinct way of computation. Although none of these will happen till tomorrow, the possibilities are so great and the technological advancements are coming so frequently and fast, that every business leader should have a basic understanding of how the technology works, which kinds of problems it could solve, and how to prepare to explore and exploit its potential. Although a universal technical implementation is far beyond the current state of technology, small devices make short-term results possible even today. Nevertheless, academic literature on the possible business applications, impacts and opportunities of this technology is rare. This thesis shall fill this gap and provide strategic managers a broad and holistic overview on quantum computing and its associated potential. Regarding the thesis a shortened technology and strategic foresight report, the conducted research activities have been designed in accordance with the first phases of a foresight process. Literature review and expert interviews represent the chosen foresight methods. Besides state-of-the-art literature the author focused on available online material offered by providers of quantum technologies as well as consultancy firms. Five interviews with six experts in the academic fields of quantum software and business informatics as well as practitioners, have been conducted to complete the holistic picture. However, the results must not be taken as granted predictions but rather foster the awareness of strategic managers for this technology by explaining the basic principles of quantum computing, presenting assumptions concerning the potential impact and business applications, providing an overview about the current state and anticipated future of quantum computing, and showing ways how to start engaging with quantum computing in the business. The most promising application of this technology, which utilizes quantum mechanical phenomena like superposition and entanglement for computation, is not the substitution of classical computers but rather its utilization for special purposes like quantum optimization, quantum simulation and quantum machine learning. Based on these capabilities of quantum computing the industries that are most probably highly affected are the finance and insurance industry, the materials design and healthcare sector, industries that rely on computational fluid dynamics, and the transportation and logistics sector. On the way to broad commercial utilization of quantum computing, the most prominent obstacles are error correction and scaling of the hardware systems. However, the already existing current solutions of quantum computing providers lead towards a hardware agnostic and cloud-based as-a-service solution for end users, which allows for resource saving and flexible experimentation. Facing the potential impact and the current state of technology, many ventures emerged that explore the potential of quantum computing for businesses. Besides the current activities and solutions in the field of quantum computing, there are several other aspects to assess, when the strategic management of a business considers engaging with this technology, e.g. pain points that can be addresses by quantum computing and the right timing. Subsequent phases would be obtaining the required know-how, identification of use cases, experimenting and exploring with real quantum systems, and the construction of a roadmap. Throughout all these phases there exists the possibility for external support (e.g. consultancies, partnerships, networks). Gemeinhardt Felix, BA Universität Linz, Masterarbeit, 2020 (VLID)5490166 |
