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This paper puts forward a framework for probabilistic and holistic cost-effectiveness analysisto provide support in selecting the least-cost set of measures to reach a multidimensionalenvironmental objective. Following the principles of ecosystem-based management,the framework includes a flexible methodology for deriving and populating criteria for effectivenessand costs and analyzing complex ecological-economic trade-offs under uncertainty.The framework is applied in the development of the Finnish Programme of Measures (PoM) for reaching the targets of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Thenumerical results demonstrate that substantial cost savings can be realized from carefulconsideration of the costs and multiple effects of management measures. If adopted, theproposed PoM would yield improvements in the state of the Baltic Sea, but the overall objectiveof the MSFD would not be reached by the target year of 2020; for various environmentaland administrative reasons, it would take longer for most measures to take full effect. |
