| Přispěvatelé: |
Summers, David M, Bryan, Brett A, Lyle, Greg, Wells, Sam, McLean, Josie, Siebentritt, Mark, Moon, Travis, Meyer, Wayne, MODSIM 2013 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation: Adapting to change: the multiple roles of modelling Adelaide, Australia 1–6 December 2013 |
| Popis: |
It is increasingly important to consider a vast range of complex issues when planning around landscape and regional natural resource management issues. The complex relationships between competing interests such as food production, water supply, soil and land degradation, as well as biodiversity can be very difficult to balance, particularly with uncertainty about markets and the impact of climate change. Furthermore, short term planning and management horizons relative to long term agro-environmental processes make it difficult to project the influence of policy options into the future. There is a need to identify and explore uncertainty in the information that informs policy and in turn make management decisions more robust to this uncertainty. Here we present a series of simple models that enable planners and managers to explore spatially explicit landscape futures for natural resource management. These models are explicitly focused on regional planning and applied within four issue based modules which are designed to enable exploration of potential future states for a range of key drivers that will impact upon future planning. These modules are: the agricultural management module provides a systems modeling approach to explore food and fibre production under changing climate and market conditions. The carbon sequestration module uses a landscape planning approach within a multi criteria analysis (MCA) to compare the productivity and economic returns from agricultural with that of forestry for carbon abatement under different climate and market scenarios. The MCA creates inclusion (go) and exclusion (no go) zones for agricultural production and carbon forestry based on user defined thresholds over a set of criteria. The biodiversity conservation module uses a cost benefit approach to inform policy options such as targeted incentive schemes where payments are made to encourage the conversion of agricultural land to conservation. These approaches are aimed at finding the conservation areas that provide the most cost effective investment. The weed risk module uses a risk analysis framework to identify areas for targeted weed management under different climate scenarios. Risk layers are developed by combining spatial layers of the likelihood of weed invasion with the potential consequence to agriculture or biodiversity. The risk layers can be used to identify hotspots where there is a high likelihood of occurrence for selected weed species and the economic or ecological consequence of this occurrence would be high. These four planning modules have been developed into a web-based interface called the landscape futures analysis tool (LFAT). The aim of the LFAT is to provide an accessible and user friendly portal that exposes planners and managers to the science of landscape futures. Through this portal they can explore the different drivers and sensitivities landscape and natural resource decisions. To do this the LFAT enables users to select combinations of variables, targets and land use options as they explore each of the different modules though output maps and summary statistics. |
