| Popis: |
Studies in stratigraphy are often driven by the predicted climate change and possible gains for the oil and gas industry. Because, at present predictions of the development of future deltaic architecture are insufficient. This thesis addresses the problem of qualitative and quantitative understanding of sedimentary systems in two stages. In the first stage the stratigraphy of Holocene delta deposits of the Kura and Mahakam deltas (respectively in Azerbaijan en Indonesia) are studied. Results from these studies provide insights as an analogue to ancient systems and serve as an example for expected future conditions. The results form the Kura delta show a prominent role for the rapid sea-level change of the Caspian Sea, while the results of Mahakam delta suggest an important role for the eustatic Holocene sea-level curve and the absence of floods of the Mahakam River. Information obtained from studies in a similar context have the potential to reduce uncertainties and increase confidence in models. The second stage of this thesis covers the development of a process-response simulation model to assess the impact of changes in sediment supply and sea-level on fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy. Anticipating on the dominant role of sediment supply on fluvial dominated deltas, a choice is made for a detailed investigation in how to incorporate good estimates of sediment supply in the numerical model, that enable to explore the possibilities of using a probabilistic approach instead of a deterministic output or geostatistical analysis. |
