Modelling cholera epidemics: the role of waterways, human mobility and sanitation

Autor: Lorenzo Mari, Enrico Bertuzzo, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe, Marino Gatto, Renato Casagrandi, Lorenzo Righetto, Andrea Rinaldo
Rok vydání: 2012
Předmět:
Sanitation
Climate
Population Dynamics
02 engineering and technology
medicine.disease_cause
Biochemistry
South Africa
Cholera
Theoretical
Models
020701 environmental engineering
Vibrio cholerae
Research Articles
0303 health sciences
Ecology
Transmission (medicine)
Explicit model
Hydrological transport
Settore ICAR/02 - Costruzioni Idrauliche e Marittime e Idrologia
3. Good health
Dynamics
Hyperinfectivity
Geography
Strategies
Water Microbiology
Biotechnology
Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia
Spread
0207 environmental engineering
Biophysics
Biomedical Engineering
Bioengineering
Cholera outbreak
Biomaterials
03 medical and health sciences
Rates
medicine
Humans
Gravity models
Long-distance dispersal
Multi-layer networks
Susceptible-infected-recovered-like models
Epidemics
Models
Theoretical
Environmental planning
030304 developmental biology
Systems
medicine.disease
Influenza
Measles
Zdroj: JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0304
Popis: We investigate the role of human mobility as a driver for long-range spreading of cholera infections, which primarily propagate through hydrologically controlled ecological corridors. Our aim is to build a spatially explicit model of a disease epidemic, which is relevant to both social and scientific issues. We present a two-layer network model that accounts for the interplay between epidemiological dynamics, hydrological transport and long-distance dissemination of the pathogen Vibrio cholerae owing to host movement, described here by means of a gravity-model approach. We test our model against epidemiological data recorded during the extensive cholera outbreak occurred in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa during 2000–2001. We show that long-range human movement is fundamental in quantifying otherwise unexplained inter-catchment transport of V. cholerae , thus playing a key role in the formation of regional patterns of cholera epidemics. We also show quantitatively how heterogeneously distributed drinking water supplies and sanitation conditions may affect large-scale cholera transmission, and analyse the effects of different sanitation policies.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz: