Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa
| Autor: | Alpha Oumar Diallo, Lucy A McNamara, Heidi M Soeters, Clement Lingani, Rasmata Ouédraogo-Traoré, Ryan T. Novak, Brice Bicaba, Félix Tarbangdo, Jason M. Mwenda, Daugla Doumagoum Moto, Souleymane Coulibaly, Adodo Yao Sadji, Kadidja Gamougame, Assétou Y Dembélé, Ibrehima Guindo, Isaïe Medah, Maman Zaneidou, Haoua Tall, Katya Fernandez, Marietou F Paye, Jeni Vuong, Christelle Nikiema, Djibo Issifou, Issaka Yaméogo, Hamadi Assane, Andre Bita, Joseph W. Walker, Xin Wang, Guetwende Sawadogo |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Surveillance data
Chad Margin of error Disease Mali Laboratory testing Meningitis Bacterial Bacterial Meningitis Environmental health Burkina Faso Sampling process medicine Humans Immunology and Allergy Public Health Surveillance Niger Neisseria meningitidis serogroup business.industry Laboratory Techniques for Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Disease Surveillance Laboratory Surveillance Modeling medicine.disease AcademicSubjects/MED00290 Infectious Diseases Togo Population Surveillance Africa Bacterial meningitis business Meningitis |
| Zdroj: | The Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| ISSN: | 1537-6613 0022-1899 |
| Popis: | Since 2010, the introduction of an effective serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine has led to the near-elimination of invasive Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A disease in Africa’s meningitis belt. However, a significant burden of disease and epidemics due to other bacterial meningitis pathogens remain in the region. High-quality surveillance data with laboratory confirmation is important to monitor circulating bacterial meningitis pathogens and design appropriate interventions, but complete testing of all reported cases is often infeasible. Here, we use case-based surveillance data from 5 countries in the meningitis belt to determine how accurately estimates of the distribution of causative pathogens would represent the true distribution under different laboratory testing strategies. Detailed case-based surveillance data was collected by the MenAfriNet surveillance consortium in up to 3 seasons from participating districts in 5 countries. For each unique country-season pair, we simulated the accuracy of laboratory surveillance by repeatedly drawing subsets of tested cases and calculating the margin of error of the estimated proportion of cases caused by each pathogen (the greatest pathogen-specific absolute error in proportions between the subset and the full set of cases). Across the 12 country-season pairs analyzed, the 95% credible intervals around estimates of the proportion of cases caused by each pathogen had median widths of ±0.13, ±0.07, and ±0.05, respectively, when random samples of 25%, 50%, and 75% of cases were selected for testing. The level of geographic stratification in the sampling process did not meaningfully affect accuracy estimates. These findings can inform testing thresholds for laboratory surveillance programs in the meningitis belt. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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