Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption

Autor: Lee, R., Mason, A., Amporfu, E., An, C.-B., Bixby, L. R., Bravo, J., Bucheli, M., Chen, Q., Comelatto, P., Coy, D., d'Albis, H., Donehower, G., Dramani, L., Furnkranz-Prskawetz, A., Gal, R. I., Holz, M., Huong, N. T. L., Kluge, F., Ladusingh, L., Lee, S.-H., Lindh, T., Ling, L., Long, G. T., Maliki, Matsukura, R., McCarthy, D., Mejia-Guevara, I., Mergo, T., Miller, T., Mwabu, G., Narayana, M. R., Nor, V., Norte, G. M., Ogawa, N., Olaniyan, O. A., Olivera, J., Oosthuizen, M., Phananiramai, M., Queiroz, B. L., Racelis, R. H., Renteria, E., Rice, J. M., Sambt, J., Seckin, A., Sefton, J., Soyibo, A., Tovar, J. A., Tung, A.-C., Turra, C. M., Urdinola, B. P., Vaittinen, R., Vanne, R., Zannella, M., Zhang, Q.
Přispěvatelé: Department of Demography, Department of Economics, University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), East-West Center, Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Chile = University of Chile [Santiago] (UCHILE), Institute for Electronic Design Automation, Institute for Nanoelectronics, Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (CES), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paris School of Economics (PSE), École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Paediatric Nephrology, Paediatric National Hospital, Hanoï Medical University, Institute of Computer Science - University of Augsburg (ICS), Universität Augsburg [Augsburg], Institute for Futures Studies, Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, Missouri, University of Missouri [St. Louis], University of Missouri System-University of Missouri System, Monash University [Malaysia], Institute for Research on Earth Evolution [Yokosuka] (IFREE), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Washington University in Saint Louis (WUSTL), National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Network
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2014
Předmět:
Zdroj: Science
Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2014, 346 (6206), pp.229-234. ⟨10.1126/science.1250542⟩
ISSN: 0036-8075
1095-9203
Popis: Copyright 2014 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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