Predicting the current and future distribution of the edible long-horned grasshopper Ruspolia differens (Serville) using temperature-dependent phenology models
| Autor: | Abdelmutalab G.A. Azrag, Sunday Ekesi, Sevgan Subramanian, Chrysantus M. Tanga, Fathiya M. Khamis, Samuel Kyamanywa, Alfonce Leonard, J.P. Egonyu, Henri Z.E. Tonnang |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Thermotolerance
0106 biological sciences Physiology Climate 030310 physiology media_common.quotation_subject Distribution (economics) Grasshoppers Biology 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Biochemistry 03 medical and health sciences Edible Insects Animals Grasshopper media_common Egg incubation 0303 health sciences business.industry Phenology Longevity Models Theoretical Fecundity biology.organism_classification Current (stream) Fertility Agronomy Reproduction General Agricultural and Biological Sciences business Animal Distribution Developmental Biology |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Thermal Biology. 95:102786 |
| ISSN: | 0306-4565 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2020.102786 |
| Popis: | The edible long-horned grasshopper Ruspolia differens (Serville) is widely distributed and consumed in sub-Saharan Africa. Efficient mass rearing of the edible grasshopper is critical to ensure their sustainable supply for food and nutritional security. Hence, we investigated the effect of temperature on development, survival and reproduction of R. differens under six constant (15, 20, 25, 30, 32 and 35 °C) and fluctuating temperatures. Using Insect Life Cycle Modeling software we fitted, linear and non-linear models to R. differens development, mortality, longevity, and fecundity. The best-fitted functions were compiled for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which was stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. We used the process-based climatic phenology models, and applied establishment risk index (ERI) and generation index (GI) in a geographic information system to map the potential distribution of R. differens under current and future climates. At optimum temperatures of 30–32 °C, egg incubation period was 14–15 days and the developmental time was shortest at 52.5–58 days. Lowest nymphal mortality (3.4–13%) and the highest female fecundity was obtained at 25–30 °C. The optimum temperature for the reproduction ranged between 27 and 30 °C. Most simulated lifetable parameters were at their maximum at 28 °C. Predictive models showed that countries in the East, Central, West, Southern and the Horn of Africa were suitable for establishment of R. differens under current climate scenarios (2000). However, by 2050, climatically suitable areas for the establishment of R. differens were predicted to shrink in the West, Southern and the Horn of Africa than its current distribution. We predict up to three generations per year for R. differens in sub-Saharan Africa under current scenarios which can increase to 4 under future scenarios. The optimum rearing temperatures identified can guide optimization of mass rearing of R. differens. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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