Interaction network based early warning indicators for the Atlantic MOC collapse
| Autor: | Jürgen Kurths, Mirjam van der Mheen, Emilio Hernández-García, Qing Yi Feng, Avi Gozolchiani, Henk A. Dijkstra, Matthijs den Toom |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Marie Curie Cancer Care, University of Maryland |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Series (mathematics) Meteorology Warning system Collapse (topology) 01 natural sciences Field (geography) 010305 fluids & plasmas Geophysics Critical transition Interaction network Climatology 0103 physical sciences General Earth and Planetary Sciences Critical condition Geology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Clustering coefficient |
| Zdroj: | Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname |
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
| Popis: | Early warning indicators of the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) have up to now mostly been based on temporal correlations in single time series. Here, we propose new indicators based on spatial correlations in the time series of the Atlantic temperature field. To demonstrate the performance of these indicators, we use a meridional-depth model of the MOC for which the critical conditions for collapse can be explicitly computed. An interaction network approach is used to monitor changes in spatial correlations in the model temperature time series as the critical transition is approached. The new early warning indicators are based on changes in topological properties of the network, in particular changes in the distribution functions of the degree and the clustering coefficient. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the LINC project (no. 289447) funded by ECs Marie‒Curie ITN program (FP7‒PEOPLE‒2011‒ITN). H.D. also thanks the Burgers program of the University of Maryland, College Park, MD (USA) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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