Examining the impacts of future land use/land cover changes on climate in Punjab province, Pakistan: implications for environmental sustainability and economic growth
| Autor: | Muhammad Masood Azeem, Xiangzheng Deng, Muhammad Iqbal, Shaikh Shamim Hasan, Abdus Samie, Azhar Abbas, Sidra Hamid |
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| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Biogeochemical cycle
Land use business.industry Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change Environmental resource management Climate change Land use land cover General Medicine Land cover 010501 environmental sciences Models Theoretical 01 natural sciences Pollution Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sustainability Environmental Chemistry Environmental science Land use land-use change and forestry Pakistan Economic Development business 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Forecasting |
| Zdroj: | Environmental science and pollution research international. 27(20) |
| ISSN: | 1614-7499 |
| Popis: | Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) significantly affect the climate at regional and global levels through different biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. However, the effects of biogeophysical aspects of LULCC on climate have been often ignored, which may overestimate the biogeochemical effects on climate change. Thus, understanding the biogeophysical influence of land use changes on climate change in future potential scenarios is crucial. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the mechanism and land use change impacts on future climate under different scenarios through changes in underlying surface and surface energy balance. In order to fill this research gap, three simulations are performed by Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model for the year 2010–2030 under Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, Rapid Economic Growth (REG) scenario, and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CES) scenario to evaluate the influence of future LULCC on temperature projections for the Punjab province in Pakistan. Results show that land use conversions under three scenarios induce overall climate cooling in the region. The decrease in annual average temperature in CES scenario (− 0.02 °C) is slightly greater than that in BAU and REG scenarios (− 0.01 °C). The responses of temperature to future LULCC vary in different months in all scenarios, with greater responses in warmer months, causing climate cooling. In each scenario, the response of temperature is found to be sensitive to different land transitions. The findings of the study can be a reference for policy makers, researchers, and development practitioners in their pursuit to understand the effects of land use change on climate. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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