Comparing Trends in Modeled and Observed Streamflows at Minimally Altered Basins in the United States
| Autor: | Jacob H. LaFontaine, Amy M. Russell, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Robert W. Dudley |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Percentile
bias lcsh:Hydraulic engineering 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Geography Planning and Development Flow (psychology) 0207 environmental engineering 02 engineering and technology Aquatic Science Structural basin deterministic model 01 natural sciences Biochemistry lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes 99th percentile lcsh:TC1-978 Streamflow Precipitation 020701 environmental engineering 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology lcsh:TD201-500 statistical model Statistical model United States model fit trend Climatology Environmental science streamflow |
| Zdroj: | Water, Vol 12, Iss 1728, p 1728 (2020) Water Volume 12 Issue 6 |
| ISSN: | 2073-4441 |
| Popis: | We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984 to 2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a measure of overall model fit and average bias. A higher percentage of basins, for all models, had relatively low trend differences between modeled and observed mean/median flows than for very high or low flows such as the annual 1-day high and 7-day low flows. Mean-flow metrics also had the largest percentage of basins with relatively good overall model fit and low bias. The five statistical transfer models performed better at more basins than the process-based model. The overall model fit for all models, for mean and/or high flows, was correlated with one or more measures of basin precipitation or aridity. Our study and previous studies generally observed good model performance for high flows up to 90th or 95th percentile flows. However, we found model performance was substantially worse for more extreme flows, including 99th percentile and annual 1-day high flows, indicating the importance of including more extreme high flows in analyses of model performance. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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