Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
| Autor: | Haibo Du, Markus G. Donat, Shengwei Zong, Lisa V. Alexander, Rodrigo Manzanas, Andries Kruger, Gwangyong Choi, Jim Salinger, Hong S. He, Mai-He Li, Fumiaki Fujibe, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Shafiqur Rehman, Farhat Abbas, Matilde Rusticucci, Arvind Srivastava, Panmao Zhai, Tanya Lippmann, Ibouraïma Yabi, Michael C. Stambaugh, Shengzhong Wang, Altangerel Batbold, Priscilla Teles de Oliveira, Muhammad Adrees, Wei Hou, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Paulo Sergio Lucio, Zhengfang Wu |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth and Climate, Universidad de Cantabria |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] Precipitation Extreme events Climate prediction Climate records Simulació per ordinador SDG 13 - Climate Action Climate science Climate change sense organs skin and connective tissue diseases Precipitation forecasting Canvis climàtics |
| Zdroj: | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(4), E1130-E1145. American Meteorological Society Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2022, 103(4), 1130-1145 UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria Universidad de Cantabria (UC) Du, H, Donat, M G, Zong, S, Alexander, L V, Manzanas, R, Kruger, A, Choi, G, Salinger, J, He, H S, Li, M H, Fujibe, F, Nandintsetseg, B, Rehman, S, Abbas, F, Rusticucci, M, Srivastava, A, Zhai, P, Lippmann, T, Yabi, I, Stambaugh, M C, Wang, S, Batbold, A, de Oliveira, P T, Adrees, M, Hou, W, Santos e Silva, C M, Lucio, P S & Wu, Z 2022, ' Extreme Precipitation on Consecutive Days Occurs More Often in a Warming Climate ', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 103, no. 4, pp. E1130-E1145 . https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1 UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| ISSN: | 0003-0007 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1 |
| Popis: | Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming. We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964. Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 28 autors/es: Haibo Du, Markus G. Donat, Shengwei Zong, Lisa V. Alexander, Rodrigo Manzanas, Andries Kruger, Gwangyong Choi, Jim Salinger, Hong S. He, Mai-He Li, Fumiaki Fujibe, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Shafiqur Rehman, Farhat Abbas, Matilde Rusticucci, Arvind Srivastava, Panmao Zhai, Tanya Lippmann, Ibouraïma Yabi, Michael C. Stambaugh, Shengzhong Wang, Altangerel Batbold, Priscilla Teles de Oliveira, Muhammad Adrees, Wei Hou, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Paulo Sergio Lucio, and Zhengfang Wu " |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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