Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis
| Autor: | James B. Grand, Erik E. Osnas, Julian B. Fischer, Kylee Dunham, Charles J. Frost |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Decision Analysis
Conservation Biology Endangered species Ecological Parameter Monitoring Social Sciences Geographical locations Abundance (ecology) Yukon Territory Psychology Conservation Science education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary biology Animal Behavior Ecology Population size Eukaryota Eider Geography Ducks Vertebrates Engineering and Technology Medicine Management Engineering Research Article Ecological Metrics Science Population Wildlife Animal Sexual Behavior Research and Analysis Methods Decision Support Techniques Birds Population Metrics Animals education Population Growth Decision Making Organizational Behavior Population Biology Endangered Species Ecology and Environmental Sciences Organisms Biology and Life Sciences Bayes Theorem biology.organism_classification United States Fishery Extinction Risk Threatened species Amniotes North America People and places Zoology Alaska Decision analysis |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0253895 (2021) PLoS ONE |
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
| Popis: | Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
| Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje | K zobrazení výsledku je třeba se přihlásit. |