Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration
| Autor: | Jonathan J. Azose, Adrian E. Raftery |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
Time Factors
United Nations Computer science Population Population Dynamics 01 natural sciences Autoregressive model Article 010104 statistics & probability Bayes' theorem Age Distribution Projection (mathematics) 0502 economics and business Econometrics Bayesian hierarchical modeling Humans 050207 economics 0101 mathematics Sex Distribution education Bayesian hierarchical model Demography education.field_of_study 05 social sciences Probabilistic logic Bayes Theorem Emigration and Immigration Markov Chains Net migration rate Markov chain Monte Carlo Gravity model of trade Population projection World population prospects Monte Carlo Method |
| Zdroj: | Demography |
| ISSN: | 1533-7790 |
| Popis: | We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. Electronic supplementary material The on line version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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