Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives
| Autor: | White, Steven M., Navas‐Cortés, Juan A., Bullock, James M., Boscia, Donato, Chapman, Daniel S. |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | European Commission |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
0301 basic medicine Economic growth Xylella fastidiosa subsp. pauca epidemiological model Plant Science Epidemiological model Horticulture 01 natural sciences Ecology and Environment Philaenus spumarius 03 medical and health sciences Olive quick decline syndrome olive quick decline syndrome Genetics media_common.cataloged_instance European union Olea europaea media_common 2. Zero hunger biology Olea europea Outbreak biology.organism_classification Field monitoring 030104 developmental biology SIR Xylella fastidiosa Agronomy and Crop Science Mathematics 010606 plant biology & botany |
| Zdroj: | Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname Plant pathology (Online) (2020). doi:10.1111/ppa.13238 info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:White S.M., Navas-Cortés J.A., Bullock J.M., Boscia D., Chapman D.S./titolo:Estimating the epidemiology of emerging Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks in olives./doi:10.1111%2Fppa.13238/rivista:Plant pathology (Online)/anno:2020/pagina_da:/pagina_a:/intervallo_pagine:/volume Plant Pathology |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ppa.13238 |
| Popis: | Xylella fastidiosa is an important insect‐vectored bacterial plant pathogen with a wide host range, causing significant economic impact in the agricultural and horticultural industries. Once restricted to the Americas, severe European outbreaks have been discovered recently in Italy, Spain, France, and Portugal. The Italian outbreak, detected in Puglia in 2013, has spread over 100 km, killing millions of olive trees, and is still expanding. To date, quantified assessment of important epidemiological parameters useful for risk assessment and management, such as transmission rates, symptomless periods, and time to death in field populations, has been lacking. This is due to the emergent and novel nature of the outbreak and length of time needed to monitor the course of disease progression. To address this, we developed a Bayesian method to infer epidemiological parameters by fitting and comparing compartmental epidemiological models to short snapshots of disease progression observed in multiple field plots. We estimated that each infected tree with symptoms is able to infect around 19 trees per year (95% credible range 14–26). The symptomless stage was estimated to have low to negligible infectivity and to last an average of approximately 1.2 years (95% credible range 1.0–1.3 years). Tree desiccation was estimated to occur approximately 4.3 years (95% credible range 4.0–4.6 years) after symptom appearance. However, we were unable to estimate the infectiousness of desiccated trees from the data. Our method could be used to make early estimates of epidemiological parameters in other emerging disease outbreaks where symptom expression is slow. All authors are funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 727987 – XF‐ACTORS ‘Xylella fastidiosa Active Containment Through a multidisciplinary‐Oriented Research Strategy’. Field monitoring data was supported by Grant Agreement No. 635646 – POnTE ‘Pest Organisms threaten Europe’. Support was also funded by grant agreement no. 734353 – CURE‐XF ‘Capacity Building and Raising Awareness in Europe and in Third Countries to Cope with Xylella fastidiosa’. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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