Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France)

Autor: Thomas Houet, Laure Vacquié, Rosalie Vandromme, Gilles Grandjean, Yann Forget, Anne Puissant, Apolline Marriotti, Yannick Thiery, Séverine Bernardie, Marine Grémont
Přispěvatelé: Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Rennes), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Géographie de l'environnement (GEODE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J), Laboratoire Image, Ville, Environnement (LIVE), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen), Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès (UT2J)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: Regional Environmental Change
Regional Environmental Change, Springer Verlag, 2017, 17 (8), pp.2293-2307. ⟨10.1007/s10113-017-1171-z⟩
ISSN: 1436-378X
1436-3798
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1171-z
Popis: International audience; Better understanding the pathways through which future socioeconomic changes might influence land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) is a crucial step in accurately assessing the resilience of societies to mountain hazards. Participatory foresight involving local stakeholders may help building fine-scale LULCC scenarios that are consistent with the likely evolution of mountain communities. This paper develops a methodology that combines participatory approaches in downscaling socioeconomic scenarios with LULCC modelling to assess future changes in mountain hazards, applied to a case study located in the French Pyrenees. Four spatially explicit local scenarios are built each including a narrative, two future land cover maps up to 2040 and 2100, and a set of quantified LULCC. Scenarios are then used to identify areas likely to encounter land cover changes (deforestation, reforestation, and encroachment) prone to affect gravitational hazards. In order to demonstrate their interest for decision-making, future land cover maps are used as input to a landslide hazard assessment model. Results highlight that reforestation will continue to be a major trend in all scenarios and confirm that the approach improves the accuracy of landslide hazard computations. This validates the interest of developing fine-scale LULCC models that account for the local knowledge of stakeholders.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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