The economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax in South Africa: A dynamic CGE modelling approach
| Autor: | Myles Mander, Anton Cartwright, Jan van Heerden, Nicci Diederichs, Heinrich R. Bohlmann, James Nelson Blignaut |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, Faculty of Science |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Macroeconomics
Computable general equilibrium carbon tax Carbon tax lcsh:Management. Industrial management Natural resource economics lcsh:HB71-74 020209 energy lcsh:Economics as a science Subsidy 02 engineering and technology UPGEM lcsh:Business General Business Management and Accounting Gross domestic product Treasury Tax revenue computable general equilibrium lcsh:HD28-70 Greenhouse gas 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Economics Revenue lcsh:HF5001-6182 General Economics Econometrics and Finance |
| Zdroj: | South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, Vol 19, Iss 5, Pp 714-732 (2016) South African Journal of Surgery South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences, Volume: 19, Issue: 5, Pages: 714-732, Published: 2016 |
| ISSN: | 2222-3436 1015-8812 |
| DOI: | 10.4102/sajems.v19i5.1586 |
| Popis: | The economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax in South Africa: A dynamic cge modelling approachSouth Africa’s National Treasury released its Carbon Tax Policy Paper in May 2013. The paper proposed a R120/tCO2-equiv. levy on coal, gas and petroleum fuels. Here, we model the possible impacts of such a tax on the South African economy using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) 53-sector model of the University of Pretoria’s Department of Economics. The model shows that the carbon tax has the capacity to decrease South Africa’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by between 1 900MtCO2-equiv. and 2 300MtCO2-equiv. between 2016 and 2035. The extent of emissions reductions is most sensitive to the rate at which tax exemptions are removed. Recycling of carbon tax revenue reduces the extent of emissions reductions due to the fact that economic growth is supported. The manner in which carbon tax revenue is recycled back into the economy is therefore important in terms of the extent of emissions reductions achieved, but not as significant as the influence of different exemption schedules. The model shows the carbon tax to have a net negative impact on South Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the baseline under all exemption regimes and all revenue recycling options assessed. The negative impact of the carbon tax on GDP is, however, greatly reduced by the manner in which the tax revenue is recycled. Recycling in the form of a production subsidy for all industries results in the lowest negative impact on GDP. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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