Projection of the Number of Elderly in Different Health States in Thailand in the Next Ten Years, 2020–2030
Autor: | Thinakorn Noree, Panupong Tantirat, Thanit Rattanathumsakul, Repeepong Suphanchaimat |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
Activities of daily living
Status quo Health Toxicology and Mutagenesis Model prediction Resource planning media_common.quotation_subject Health Status Population Dynamics lcsh:Medicine multi-state modelling 01 natural sciences elderly Article Social group 010104 statistics & probability 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine bedridden Activities of Daily Living Humans 030212 general & internal medicine 0101 mathematics media_common Aged Mortality rate lcsh:R Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health social sciences Thailand humanities Health states Long-term care long-term care Psychology Demography Forecasting |
Zdroj: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 17, Iss 8703, p 8703 (2020) International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Volume 17 Issue 22 |
ISSN: | 1661-7827 1660-4601 |
Popis: | The objective of this study is to predict the volume of the elderly in different health status categories in Thailand in the next ten years (2020&ndash 2030). Multistate modelling was performed. We defined four states of elderly patients (aged &ge 60 years) according to four different levels of Activities of Daily Living (ADL): social group home group bedridden group and dead group. The volume of newcomers was projected by trend extrapolation methods with exponential growth. The transition probabilities from one state to another was obtained by literature review and model optimization. The mortality rate was obtained by literature review. Sensitivity analysis was conducted. By 2030, the number of social, home, and bedridden groups was 15,593,054, 321,511, and 152,749, respectively. The model prediction error was 1.75%. Sensitivity analysis with the change of transition probabilities by 20% caused the number of bedridden patients to vary from between 150,249 and 155,596. In conclusion, the number of bedridden elders will reach 153,000 in the next decade (3 times larger than the status quo). Policy makers may consider using this finding as an input for future resource planning and allocation. Further studies should be conducted to identify the parameters that better reflect the transition of people from one health state to another. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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