Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica

Autor: Eric T. Harvill, Stacy Pritt, Barry Kline, Divya Sinha, Peter J. Hudson, Andrew F. Read, Gráinne H. Long, Ottar N. Bjørnstad
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2010
Předmět:
Prevalence
Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases
Disease
Social Environment
Respiratory Medicine/Respiratory Infections
law.invention
Disease Outbreaks
Infectious Diseases/Bacterial Infections
law
lcsh:QH301-705.5
2. Zero hunger
0303 health sciences
education.field_of_study
Bordetella bronchiseptica
Age Factors
3. Good health
Transmission (mechanics)
Ecology/Population Ecology
Evolutionary Biology/Microbial Evolution and Genomics
Cohort
Regression Analysis
Rabbits
Research Article
lcsh:Immunologic diseases. Allergy
Immunology
Population
Biology
Microbiology
03 medical and health sciences
Sex Factors
Virology
Ecology/Evolutionary Ecology
Genetics
Animals
Humans
education
Molecular Biology
030304 developmental biology
Bordetella Infections
030306 microbiology
Outbreak
biology.organism_classification
lcsh:Biology (General)
Parasitology
lcsh:RC581-607
Demography
Zdroj: PLoS Pathogens, Vol 6, Iss 12, p e1001224 (2010)
PLoS Pathogens
ISSN: 1553-7374
1553-7366
Popis: Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica – a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans – within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings – as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts – as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control.
Author Summary A lack of understanding regarding determinants of infectious disease transmission has hindered improved disease control efforts. Here we had the unique opportunity to study the natural transmission of the respiratory pathogen Bordetella bronchiseptica within a commercial rabbitry. B. bronchiseptica is a directly transmitted gram-negative bacterium belonging to the genus Bordetella, which also comprises B. pertussis and B. parapertussis, the etiological agents of whooping cough in humans. In this study we estimated the importance of rabbit sex, age and social group on disease spread. To do this we first outlined a set of hypotheses about how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We then discriminated between these hypotheses by estimating the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection (or force-of-infection) using B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data. The importance of social structure in disease spread was then evaluated using random-effect binomial regression. Our results support young weanlings as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission and demonstrate that easy to collect age-prevalence data can be used to infer the likely age-cohort responsible for disease transmission. Such insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective disease control.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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