Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios
| Autor: | Dilek Önkal, Sinan Gönül, Celile Itir Gogus, Paul Goodwin, Ayşe Kocabıyıkoğlu |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Göğüş, Celile Itır |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Best and worst case scenarios
Sociology and Political Science Computer science Strategy and Management General Decision Sciences 050109 social psychology 050105 experimental psychology Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) Demand forecasting Econometrics 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences N200 Context effects Applied Psychology Decision Sciences(all) Context effect 05 social sciences Contrast effects Prediction interval Contrast (statistics) Stock market index Stock market forecasting Prediction intervals |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Goodwin, P, Gönül, M S, Önkal, D, Kocabıyıkoğlu, A & Göğüş, I 2019, ' Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst-and best-case scenarios ', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 536-549 . https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2130 ISF 2019-39th International Symposium on Forecasting |
| ISSN: | 0894-3257 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/bdm.2130 |
| Popis: | Two experiments investigated whether individuals’ forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst-case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second ‘opposite’ scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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