Ultraviolet Radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative

Autor: Slimane Bekki, Daniele Visioni, Hassan Bencherif, Laura E. Revell, Kohei Yoshida, Martyn P. Chipperfield, John A. Pyle, Andrea Stenke, Kengo Sudo, N. Butchart, Béatrice Josse, Thierry Portafaix, Alexander T. Archibald, Colette Brogniez, Patrick Jöckel, Eugene Rozanov, Makoto Deushi, Giovanni Pitari, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Michaela I. Hegglin, Glauco Di Genova, Taichu Tanaka, Fiona M. O'Connor, Oliver Kirner, Olaf Morgenstern, David Saint-Martin, Guang Zeng, Rong-Ming Hu, Douglas E. Kinnison, Kévin Lamy, David A. Plummer, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Virginie Marécal, Sandip Dhomse
Přispěvatelé: Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones ( LACy ), Météo France-Université de la Réunion ( UR ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques ( CNRM ), Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 ( LOA ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), SHTI - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), School of Chemistry and Physics [Durban], University of KwaZulu-Natal ( UKZN ), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] ( IAC ), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich ( ETH Zürich ), Bodeker Scientific, School of Physical Chemical Sciences [Christchurch], University of Canterbury [Christchurch], National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading ( UOR ), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre ( IPA ), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] ( DLR ), Steinbuch Centre for Computing [Karlsruhe] ( SCC ), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] ( NIWA ), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ), National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] ( NCAS ), Natural Environment Research Council ( NERC ), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), University of Leeds, Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences [L'Aquila] ( DSFC ), Università degli Studi dell'Aquila [L'Aquila] ( UNIVAQ.IT ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] ( MRI ), Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( CCCma ), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center ( PMOD/WRC ), Graduate School of Environmental Studies [Nagoya], Nagoya University, Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo-France -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Lille, STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), University of Reading (UOR), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Steinbuch Centre for Computing [Karlsruhe] (SCC), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences [L'Aquila] (DSFC), Università degli Studi dell'Aquila (UNIVAQ), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2018
Předmět:
Zdroj: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2018, pp.(Under Review). 〈10.5194/acp-2018-525〉
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, European Geosciences Union, 2018, ⟨10.5194/acp-2018-525⟩
ISSN: 1680-7367
1680-7375
Popis: We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2–4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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