Modelling the impact of social distancing and targeted vaccination on the spread of COVID-19 through a real city-scale contact network
| Autor: | Gavin S Hartnett, Edward Parker, Timothy R Gulden, Raffaele Vardavas, David Kravitz |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)
FOS: Computer and information sciences Physics - Physics and Society Control and Optimization COVID-19 vaccination Computer Networks and Communications AcademicSubjects/SCI00010 Applied Mathematics Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) social distancing FOS: Physical sciences Computer Science - Social and Information Networks mobile device data Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) Management Science and Operations Research Article Computational Mathematics FOS: Biological sciences Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution contact network epidemic modeling |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Complex Networks |
| ISSN: | 2051-1329 2051-1310 |
| Popis: | We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These networks reveal how social distancing measures and the public's reaction to the incipient pandemic affected the connectivity patterns within the city. We find that as the pandemic developed there was a substantial decrease in the number of individuals with many contacts. We further study the impact of these different network topologies on the spread of COVID-19 by simulating an SEIR epidemic model over these networks, and find that the reduced connectivity greatly suppressed the epidemic. We then investigate how the epidemic responds when part of the population is vaccinated, and we compare two vaccination distribution strategies, both with and without social distancing. Our main result is that the heavy-tailed degree distribution of the contact networks causes a targeted vaccination strategy that prioritizes high-contact individuals to reduce the number of cases far more effectively than a strategy that vaccinates individuals at random. Combining both targeted vaccination and social distancing leads to the greatest reduction in cases, and we also find that the marginal benefit of a targeted strategy as compared to a random strategy exceeds the marginal benefit of social distancing for reducing the number of cases. These results have important implications for ongoing vaccine distribution efforts worldwide. 15 pages, 9 figures. This article is a RAND Working Report |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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