Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICME Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models
| Autor: | Georgios Balasis, Evangelos Paouris, Anastasios Anastasiadis, Athanasios Papaioannou, M. Leila Mays, Mateja Dumbović, Jaša Čalogović, Angelos Vourlidas |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Physics
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Mean squared error Ensemble forecasting FOS: Physical sciences Astronomy and Astrophysics 01 natural sciences Space Physics (physics.space-ph) Computational physics Shock (mechanics) Coronal Mass Ejections Interplanetary Modeling Forecasting Initiation and propagation Physics - Space Physics Solar wind Acceleration 13. Climate action Space and Planetary Science Drag 0103 physical sciences Coronal mass ejection Interplanetary spaceflight 010303 astronomy & astrophysics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Solar Physics Web of Science |
| ISSN: | 0038-0938 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4 |
| Popis: | The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$\pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$\pm$2.2 and 12.8$\pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$\pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$\pm$3.4 and -6.1$\pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU. Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, 4 Tables. Accepted in Solar Physics |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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