Problems of estimating the neutral interest rate: conclusions for Ukraine
| Autor: | Ivan Bohdan, Bohdan Danylyshyn |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
Index (economics) business.industry Strategy and Management media_common.quotation_subject monetary policy neutral interest rate Interest rate HG1-9999 Econometrics Economics Business and International Management business Ukraine Publication the rule of uncovered interest rate parity Finance media_common |
| Zdroj: | Investment Management & Financial Innovations, Vol 18, Iss 3, Pp 214-228 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 1812-9358 1810-4967 |
| Popis: | Estimation of the actual and projected level of the neutral interest rate is a central issue in the application of modern monetary theory in the practical context of monetary policy. Views on the role and key drivers of neutral interest rates have evolved over time in parallel with the development of the theory of capital, money, credit and economic growth. Therefore, the paper is aimed at generalizing methods for assessing the neutral interest rate for open economies with emerging markets and formulating recommendations for improving the existing methodological tools for estimating the neutral rate in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, theoretical sources, advisory and research materials of international organizations, central banks and statistical databases were analyzed. It is established that the key issue of the current discussion about the tools for estimating the level of neutral interest rates in countries with small open economies is the relationship between the effects of external and internal factors. The paper identifies the advantages and disadvantages of the method for estimating the level of the neutral rate on the basis of uncovered interest parity rule used by the National Bank of Ukraine within the semi-structural macroeconomic model. The expediency of methodological tools introducing into the practice of monetary regulation of Ukraine for estimating the neutral rate of Ukraine based on the Laubach-Williams approach has been proved with adaptation to the conditions of an open economy, which will consider сinternal factors of economic development – changes in potential GDP and savings. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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