Social networks and inference about unknown events: A case of the match between Google’s AlphaGo and Sedol Lee

Autor: Dayk Jang, Sojung Baek, Jonghoon Bae, Hyungsuk Lee, Young-Jae Cha, Semin Choi, Boyun Lee
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Male
Questionnaires
Counterfactual thinking
Presidential election
Concept Formation
Culture
Social Sciences
lcsh:Medicine
Inference
Friends
Elections
Geographical Locations
Governments
Cognition
Sociology
0504 sociology
Psychology
lcsh:Science
Internal-External Control
Social influence
Event (probability theory)
Multidisciplinary
05 social sciences
Social Networks
Research Design
Female
Social psychology
Network Analysis
Research Article
Computer and Information Sciences
Asia
050402 sociology
Adolescent
Social Psychology
Seoul
Political Science
Decision Making
Research and Analysis Methods
Young Adult
Social support
Games
Recreational
0502 economics and business
Humans
Korea
Survey Research
lcsh:R
Cognitive Psychology
Social Influence
Social Support
Biology and Life Sciences
Models
Theoretical
Social relation
People and Places
Social Capital
Cognitive Science
lcsh:Q
Empathy
050203 business & management
Forecasting
Neuroscience
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 12, Iss 2, p e0171472 (2017)
PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171472
Popis: This study examines whether the way that a person makes inferences about unknown events is associated with his or her social relations, more precisely, those characterized by ego network density that reflects the structure of a person’s immediate social relation. From the analysis of individual predictions over the Go match between AlphaGo and Sedol Lee in March 2016 in Seoul, Korea, this study shows that the low-density group scored higher than the high-density group in the accuracy of the prediction over a future state of a social event, i.e., the outcome of the first game. We corroborated this finding with three replication tests that asked the participants to predict the following: film awards, President Park’s impeachment in Korea, and the counterfactual assessment of the US presidential election. Taken together, this study suggests that network density is negatively associated with vision advantage, i.e., the ability to discover and forecast an unknown aspect of a social event.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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