It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways
| Autor: | Malte Meinshausen, Özcan Deniz, Thomas Pregger, Johannes Pagenkopf, Tobias Naegler, Sven Teske, Kate Dooley, Bent van den Adel, Sonja Simon |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Control and Optimization
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Primary energy Natural resource economics 020209 energy GHG mitigation Energy Engineering and Power Technology Climate change 02 engineering and technology Paris Agreement Energy transition lcsh:Technology 01 natural sciences open access book 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering energy scenario Electrical and Electronic Engineering Engineering (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences 100% renewable energy Global temperature lcsh:T Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry 02 Physical Sciences 09 Engineering climate change 1.5 °C mitigation pathway energy transition CO2 emission non-energy emission Renewable energy Greenhouse gas Environmental science Climate model business Energy (miscellaneous) |
| Zdroj: | Energies; Volume 14; Issue 8; Pages: 2103 Energies, Vol 14, Iss 2103, p 2103 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 1996-1073 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/en14082103 |
| Popis: | It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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