Sluggish US employment recovery after the Great Recession: Cyclical or structural factors?

Autor:	Antonio Paradiso, Marcella Lucchetta
Rok vydání:	2014
Předmět:	Macroeconomics Economics and Econometrics Cointegration Employment recovery Okun's law Structural and cyclical factors Keynesian economics Great recession Economics Business cycle Production (economics) Total factor productivity Finance
Zdroj:	Economics Letters. 123:109-112
ISSN:	0165-1765
DOI:	10.1016/j.econlet.2014.01.032
Popis:	This paper aims at investigating the causes of the observed departure of employment path from the GDP movements occurred in US in the late of 2008 onwards. Starting from a production function approach, and assuming that the TFP growth is explained by variables linked to the business cycle, we are able to formulate an extended version of Okun’s law based on cyclical factors. Out-of-sample forecasting for the period 2008 onward shows that predicted US employment is on average 1.7% above the observed one, meaning that this gap cannot be attributed to identified cyclical factors.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::94287f4c7ff2643454ac38fb13026e90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.01.032 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full Text from ScienceDirect