The 1918 epidemic and a V-shaped recession: evidence from historical tax records

Autor:	Christian M. Dahl, Casper Worm Hansen, Peter Sandholt Jensen
Jazyk:	angličtina
Rok vydání:	2022
Předmět:	V-shaped recession Economics and Econometrics 1918 influenza epidemic Pandemic economics media_common.quotation_subject Keynesian economics Economics Recession 1918-influenza epidemic media_common
Zdroj:	Dahl, C M, Hansen, C W & Jensen, P S 2022, ' The 1918 epidemic and a V-shaped recession: evidence from historical tax records ', The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 124, no. 1, pp. 139-163 . https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12456 Dahl, C M, Hansen, C W & Jensen, P S 2022, ' The 1918 epidemic and a V-shaped recession: Evidence from historical tax records ', The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 124, no. 1, pp. 139-163 . https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12456
DOI:	10.1111/sjoe.12456
Popis:	We exploit high-quality vital statistics data and annual income data, obtained from historical municipality tax records, to study the economic aftermath of the 1918-influenza epidemic in Denmark. We find that average income followed a V-shaped path from 1917 to 1919 and (if anything) municipalities with higher 1918-influenza mortality rates experienced more pronounced declines and recoveries. In addition, national month-by-industry unemployment data show that unemployment rates were high during the epidemic, but decreased again a couple of months after the epidemic receded. Evidence from the Danish stock market exchange also indicates that the epidemic only had short-lived effects on the economy. We exploit high-quality vital statistics data and annual income data, obtained from historical municipality tax records, to study the economic aftermath of the 1918 influenza epidemic in Denmark. We find that average income followed a V-shaped path from 1917 to 1919, and (if anything) municipalities with higher mortality rates because of the 1918 influenza epidemic experienced more pronounced declines and recoveries. In addition, national month-by-industry unemployment data show that unemployment rates were high during the epidemic, but decreased again a couple of months after the epidemic receded. Evidence from the Danish stock-market exchange also indicates that the epidemic only had short-lived effects on the economy.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
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