Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
Autor: | Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Janaka Bamunawala, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Trang Minh Duong, Roshanka Ranasinghe, A. Brad Murray, Robert J. Nicholls, Ali Dastgheib, Ad van der Spek |
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Přispěvatelé: | Marine and Fluvial Systems |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Range (biology) Science Fluvial 01 natural sciences Article 03 medical and health sciences Sedimentary budget 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Shore 0303 health sciences geography Multidisciplinary geography.geographical_feature_category Landform Twenty-First Century Inlet Ocean sciences Erosion Medicine Physical geography Climate-change impacts Geology |
Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021) Scientific reports, 11(1):14038. Nature Publishing Group |
ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
Popis: | Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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