A predictive modeling approach to estimating seismic retrofit costs
| Autor: | Juan F. Fung, Steven L. McCabe, Siamak Sattar, David T. Butry |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Generalized linear model
021110 strategic defence & security studies Measure (data warehouse) Cost estimate Operations research Computer science Mean squared prediction error media_common.quotation_subject 0211 other engineering and technologies 020101 civil engineering 02 engineering and technology Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Article 0201 civil engineering Geophysics Portfolio Seismic retrofit Function (engineering) media_common Cost database |
| Zdroj: | Earthq Spectra |
| ISSN: | 1944-8201 8755-2930 |
| DOI: | 10.1177/8755293019891716 |
| Popis: | This article presents a methodology for estimating seismic retrofit costs from historical data. In particular, historical retrofit-cost data from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 156 is used to build a generalized linear model (GLM) to predict retrofit costs as a function of building characteristics. While not as accurate as an engineering professional’s estimate, this methodology is easy to apply to generate quick estimates and is especially useful for decision makers with large building portfolios. Moreover, the predictive modeling approach provides a measure of uncertainty in terms of prediction error. The article uses prediction error to compare different modeling choices, including the choice of distribution for costs. Finally, the proposed retrofit-cost model is implemented to estimate the cost to retrofit a portfolio of federal buildings. The application illustrates how the choice of distribution affects cost estimates. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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