Predicting Primary Energy Consumption Using Hybrid ARIMA and GA-SVR Based on EEMD Decomposition

Autor: Kazumitsu Nawata, Chi Yo Huang, Yu Sheng Kao
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Mathematics
Volume 8
Issue 10
Mathematics, Vol 8, Iss 1722, p 1722 (2020)
ISSN: 2227-7390
DOI: 10.3390/math8101722
Popis: Forecasting energy consumption is not easy because of the nonlinear nature of the time series for energy consumptions, which cannot be accurately predicted by traditional forecasting methods. Therefore, a novel hybrid forecasting framework based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) approach and a combination of individual forecasting models is proposed. The hybrid models include the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the support vector regression (SVR), and the genetic algorithm (GA). The integrated framework, the so-called EEMD-ARIMA-GA-SVR, will be used to predict the primary energy consumption of an economy. An empirical study case based on the Taiwanese consumption of energy will be used to verify the feasibility of the proposed forecast framework. According to the empirical study results, the proposed hybrid framework is feasible. Compared with prediction results derived from other forecasting mechanisms, the proposed framework demonstrates better precisions, but such a hybrid system can also be seen as a basis for energy management and policy definition.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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