Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
| Autor: | Neil M. Ferguson, Christl A. Donnelly, Arran Hamlet, Anne Cori, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Nicholas F Brazeau, William Green, Steven Riley, Margarita Pons-Salort, Xiaoyue Xi, Robert Verity, Samir Bhatt, Ilaria Dorigatti, Katharina Hauck, Caroline E. Walters, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Daniel J Laydon, Sangeeta N. Bhatia, Natsuko Imai, Lily Geidelberg, B Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Bimandra A Djaafara, Patrick G T Walker, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Helen Coupland, Richard G. FitzJohn, Amy Dighe, Kris V Parag, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Tara D. Mangal, Haowei Wang, Oliver Eales, Lorenzo Cattarino, Pierre Nouvellet, Fabrícia F. Nascimento, Wes Hinsley, Thomas A. Mellan, Laura V Cooper, Charles Whittaker, Sabine L. van Elsland, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Oliver J Watson, Lilith K Whittles, Marc Baguelin, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, John A. Lees, Erik M. Volz |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Medical Research Council (MRC), National Institute for Health Research, International Society for Infectious Diseases, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science Population Physical Distancing General Physics and Astronomy Global Health General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Article law.invention 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Interquartile range law Medicine Humans Computational models 030212 general & internal medicine Proxy (statistics) education Beneficial effects Pandemics education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Social distance COVID-19 General Chemistry Models Theoretical 030104 developmental biology Transmission (mechanics) Viral infection Communicable Disease Control Quarantine business Algorithms Demography |
| Zdroj: | Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021) Nature Communications |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| Popis: | In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial. Social distancing policies aiming to reduce COVID-19 transmission have been reflected in reductions in human mobility. Here, the authors show that reduced mobility is correlated with decreased transmission, but that this relationship weakened over time as social distancing measures were relaxed. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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