Remote impact of the Antarctic atmosphere on the southern mid-latitudes
| Autor: | Marta Kasper, Thomas Jung, Soumia Serrar, Tido Semmler |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Integrated Forecast System Lead (sea ice) Forecast skill Weather and climate lcsh:QC851-999 010502 geochemistry & geophysics Atmospheric sciences southern mid-latitudes 01 natural sciences higher-lower-latitude linkages Atmosphere 13. Climate action Meridional flow Climatology Middle latitudes Environmental science Antarctic lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology NWP Antarctic oscillation 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol 25, Iss 1, Pp 71-77 (2016) EPIC3Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Schweizerbart Science Publishers, 25(1), pp. 71-77, ISSN: 0941-2948 |
| ISSN: | 0941-2948 |
| Popis: | Would improved prediction capabilities over the Antarctic lead to improved forecast skill in southern mid-latitudes? Or more generally speaking, how large is the influence of the Antarctic atmosphere on the weather and climate of the southern mid-latitudes? To answer these questions we assess the skill of two sets of 14‑day forecasts with the Integrated Forecast System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with and without relaxation towards the Interim reanalysis of the ECMWF over the Antarctic south of 75 ° S. Due to the relaxation both the mean absolute error and the root mean square error decrease by 2 to 5 % averaged over the southern mid-latitudes with the larger values in winter. Over southern South America and the South Atlantic error reductions are slightly larger and amount to around 5 to 6 %. No dependency of the error reductions of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the Antarctic Oscillation could be found although error reductions averaged over the whole southern mid-latitudes tend to be larger in situations with decreased westerly flow in the mid-latitudes. In weather situations with anomalous meridional flow from Antarctica to southern South America improvements are most pronounced in the latter area which implies that this is the major pathway for Antarctic influence on southern mid-latitude weather and climate. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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