Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan
| Autor: | Michael P. Hurley, Hideki Hashimoto, Karen Eggleston, Sze-chuan Suen, Brian Chen, Hawre Jalal, Lena Schoemaker, Jay Bhattacharya |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Gerontology
Economics and Econometrics education.field_of_study Population ageing business.industry 030503 health policy & services Population Microsimulation Cognition Aging society social sciences humanities Article 03 medical and health sciences Long-term care 0302 clinical medicine Borderline intellectual functioning Medicine 030212 general & internal medicine Elderly adults 0305 other medical science Life-span and Life-course Studies education business Demography |
| Popis: | Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study estimates a new state-transition microsimulation model – the Japanese Future Elderly Model (FEM) – for Japan. We use the model to forecast disability and health for Japan’s future elderly. Our simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific morbidity can help reduce the burden of disability but may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly. While both age and morbidity contribute to a predicted increase in disability burden among elderly Japanese in the future, our simulation results suggest that the impact of population aging exceeds the effect of age-specific morbidity on increasing disability in Japan’s future. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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