Tropical cyclone projections: changing climate threats for Pacific island defense installations
| Autor: | Stephen B. Gingerich, John J. Marra, H. Annamalai, Curt D. Storlazzi, Kevin I. Hodges, Barry Choy, Akio Kitoh, Matthew J. Widlansky |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
021110 strategic
defence & security studies Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0211 other engineering and technologies 02 engineering and technology Subtropics 01 natural sciences Pacific ocean General Circulation Model Climatology Environmental science Climate model Tropical cyclone Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| ISSN: | 1948-8327 |
| Popis: | Potential changing climate threats in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific Ocean were assessed, using coupled ocean–atmosphere and atmosphere-only general circulation models, to explore their response to projected increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical cyclone occurrence, described by frequency and intensity, near islands housing major U.S. defense installations was the primary focus. Four island regions—Guam and Kwajalein Atoll in the tropical northwestern Pacific, Okinawa in the subtropical northwestern Pacific, and Oahu in the tropical north-central Pacific—were considered, as they provide unique climate and geographical characteristics that either enhance or reduce the tropical cyclone risk. Guam experiences the most frequent and severe tropical cyclones, which often originate as weak systems close to the equator near Kwajalein and sometimes track far enough north to affect Okinawa, whereas intense storms are the least frequent around Oahu. From assessments of models that simulate well the tropical Pacific climate, it was determined that, with a projected warming climate, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease for Guam and Kwajalein but remain about the same near Okinawa and Oahu; however, the maximum intensity of the strongest storms may increase in most regions. The likelihood of fewer but stronger storms will necessitate new localized assessments of the risk and vulnerabilities to tropical cyclones in the North Pacific. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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