Prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer: a population-based analysis
| Autor: | Xi Chen, Junxian Wu, Huanlin Zhang, Hong Chen, Linbin Lu, Weiwei Lin, Enlin Chen, Jie Li, Yihong Lin |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Oncology medicine.medical_specialty Multivariate statistics Multivariate analysis genetic structures Colorectal cancer TNM staging system urologic and male genital diseases Nomogram Early-onset colorectal cancer 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Internal medicine Epidemiology medicine Humans Overall survival Neoplasm Staging business.industry Gastroenterology Univariate Prognosis medicine.disease SEER Nomograms 030104 developmental biology 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Cohort Original Article Colorectal Neoplasms Prediction business SEER Program |
| Zdroj: | International Journal of Colorectal Disease |
| ISSN: | 1432-1262 0179-1958 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00384-021-03992-w |
| Popis: | Purpose The present study aimed to identify independent clinicopathological and socio-economic prognostic factors associated with overall survival of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) patients and then establish and validate a prognostic nomogram for patients with EO-CRC. Methods Eligible patients with EO-CRC diagnosed from 2010 to 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort. Independent prognostic factors were obtained using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses and were used to establish a nomogram for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomogram were assessed using C-index values, AUC values, and calibration plots. Results In total, 5585 patients with EO-CRC were involved in the study. Based on the univariate and multivariate analyses, 15 independent prognostic factors were assembled into the nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year OS. The nomogram showed favorable discriminatory ability as indicated by the C-index (0.840, 95% CI 0.827–0.850), and the 3- and 5-year AUC values (0.868 and 0.84869 respectively). Calibration plots indicated optimal agreement between the nomogram-predicted survival and the actual observed survival. The results remained reproducible in the testing cohort. The C-index of the nomogram was higher than that of the TNM staging system (0.840 vs 0.804, P Conclusion A novel prognostic nomogram for EO-CRC patients based on independent clinicopathological and socio-economic factors was developed, which was superior to the TNM staging system. The nomogram could facilitate postoperative individual prognosis prediction and clinical decision-making. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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