On the asymptotic equilibrium of a population system with migration
| Autor: | Zoltán Varga, Anna Attias, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Statistics and Probability
Economics and Econometrics Population 02 engineering and technology Leslie matrix Social issues Migration of labour force Unit (housing) 0502 economics and business 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Econometrics Economics Demography of population systems 050207 economics education education.field_of_study Longevity risk 05 social sciences Convergence (economics) Term (time) Ageing Equilibrium age distribution Old-age dependency ratio Dependency ratio 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing Statistics Probability and Uncertainty |
| Zdroj: | Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 92:115-127 |
| ISSN: | 0167-6687 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.03.005 |
| Popis: | In the analysis of economic and social issues of a country (or any larger or smaller socio-economic unit) the demographic dynamics of the considered population often play a crucial role. Very current emergencies in this respect are e.g. ageing, longevity risk, state-run healthcare etc. Over the last decade migration between EU countries also became an important issue, and in recent years the uncontrolled migration from non-EU countries is also a major concern. Therefore, the better theoretical understanding of the evolutionary mechanism of age-classified populations interacting via migration, is a timely modelling-methodological task. This paper is a preliminary demographic methodological contribution to a further research in support of socio-economic modelling and decision making concerning migration issues. It is known that in the framework of the classical age-specific Leslie model, under simple demographic conditions, a closed population in the long term tends to an equilibrium age distribution. As the main theoretical result of the paper, a similar convergence is proved for a system of several populations with migration between them, and this long-term behaviour (convergence theorem) is extended to systems of sex-structured populations. Based on the latter model, medium term projections are also analysed concerning the effect of migration among countries on the development of the old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of pensioner age classes to active ones), which is an aggregate scalar indicator of ageing, a major concern in most industrialized countries. Illustrative simulation analysis is carried out with data from three European countries. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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