Analysis of Failure to Finish a Race in a Cohort of Thoroughbred Racehorses in New Zealand
| Autor: | Naomi Cogger, Chris W. Rogers, Wayne Mcllwraith, Charlotte F. Bolwell, J. C. Tanner, Erica K. Gee |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Veterinary medicine
040301 veterinary sciences thoroughbred injury Article Retrospective data 0403 veterinary science symbols.namesake Race (biology) lcsh:Zoology falls Field size Medicine lcsh:QL1-991 Poisson regression lcsh:Veterinary medicine General Veterinary business.industry Incidence (epidemiology) 0402 animal and dairy science jockey 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences 040201 dairy & animal science Confidence interval horse horse racing Catastrophic injury Cohort symbols lcsh:SF600-1100 Animal Science and Zoology business Demography |
| Zdroj: | Animals : an Open Access Journal from MDPI Animals, Vol 6, Iss 6, p 36 (2016) Animals; Volume 6; Issue 6; Pages: 36 |
| ISSN: | 2076-2615 |
| Popis: | Simple Summary Overall, the failure to finish rate in New Zealand, 2.88 per 1000 horse starts (95% CI 2.64–3.12), was lower than international figures for race day catastrophic injury. Racing and environmental variables such as horse experience, race distance and season were associated with failure to finish a race. Catastrophic injury accounted for approximately half the failure to finish events. Jockey falls were positively associated with less experienced jockeys and horses. Abstract The objective was to describe the incidence of failure to finish a race in flat-racing Thoroughbreds in New Zealand as these are summary indicators of falls, injuries and poor performance. Retrospective data on six complete flat racing seasons (n = 188,615 race starts) of all Thoroughbred flat race starts from 1 August 2005 to 31 July 2011 were obtained. The incidence of failure to finish events and binomial exact 95% confidence intervals were calculated per 1000 horse starts. The association between horse-, rider- and race-level variables with the outcomes failure to finish, pulled-up/fell and lost rider were examined with a mixed effects Poisson regression model. A total of 544 horses failed to finish in 188,615 race starts with an overall incidence of 2.88 per 1000 horse starts (95% CI 2.64–3.12). The incidence of failure to finish horses across each race year showed little variability. In the univariable analysis race distance, larger field size, season, and ratings bands showed association with failing to finish a race. The overall failure to finish outcome was associated with season, race distance and ratings bands (horse experience and success ranking criteria). In the multivariable analysis, race distance and ratings bands were associated with horses that pulled-up/fell; season, apprentice allowances and ratings bands were associated with the outcome lost rider. The failure to finish rate was lower than international figures for race day catastrophic injury. Racing and environmental variables were associated with failure to finish a race highlighting the multifactorial nature of race-day events. Further investigation of risk factors for failure to finish is required to better understand the reasons for a low failure to finish rate in Thoroughbred flat races in New Zealand. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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