Cholera in Cameroon, 2000-2012: Spatial and Temporal Analysis at the Operational (Health District) and Sub Climate Levels
| Autor: | Song Liang, Simon Franky Baonga Ba Pouth, Andrew Teboh, Jason K. Blackburn, Mouhaman Arabi, Leonard Mbam Mbam, Moise Chi Ngwa, Yang Yang, Lillian R. Morris, John Glenn Morris, Ian T. Kracalik, Jonathan D. Sugimoto |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Bacterial Diseases
Atmospheric Science Time Factors Climate Rain Attack rate Monsoons Disease Outbreaks Geographical Locations 0302 clinical medicine Cholera Environmental protection Risk Factors Case fatality rate Medicine and Health Sciences Cluster Analysis Public and Occupational Health 030212 general & internal medicine Cameroon Poisson Distribution 2. Zero hunger Climatology lcsh:Public aspects of medicine Incidence (epidemiology) Incidence Temperature 3. Good health Geography Infectious Diseases Population Surveillance symbols Seasons Research Article Neglected Tropical Diseases Wet season Adult medicine.medical_specialty lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine lcsh:RC955-962 Climate Change 030231 tropical medicine Climate change 03 medical and health sciences symbols.namesake Spatio-Temporal Analysis Meteorology medicine Humans Poisson regression Models Statistical Public health Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Outbreak lcsh:RA1-1270 Tropical Diseases 13. Climate action People and Places Africa Earth Sciences Guinea Demography |
| Zdroj: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 11, p e0005105 (2016) |
| ISSN: | 1935-2735 |
| Popis: | Introduction Recurrent cholera outbreaks have been reported in Cameroon since 1971. However, case fatality ratios remain high, and we do not have an optimal understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, due in part to the diversity of Cameroon’s climate subzones and a lack of comprehensive data at the health district level. Methods/Findings A unique health district level dataset of reported cholera case numbers and related deaths from 2000–2012, obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of Cameroon and World Health Organization (WHO) country office, served as the basis for the analysis. During this time period, 43,474 cholera cases were reported: 1748 were fatal (mean annual case fatality ratio of 7.9%), with an attack rate of 17.9 reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Outbreaks occurred in three waves during the 13-year time period, with the highest case fatality ratios at the beginning of each wave. Seasonal patterns of illness differed strikingly between climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon). In the northern Sudano-Sahelian subzone, highest number of cases tended to occur during the rainy season (July-September). The southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest numbers during peak rainfall (July-September). A spatial clustering analysis identified multiple clusters of high incidence health districts during 2010 and 2011, which were the 2 years with the highest annual attack rates. A spatiotemporal autoregressive Poisson regression model fit to the 2010–2011 data identified significant associations between the risk of transmission and several factors, including the presence of major waterbody or highway, as well as the average daily maximum temperature and the precipitation levels over the preceding two weeks. The direction and/or magnitude of these associations differed between climate subzones, which, in turn, differed from national estimates that ignored subzones differences in climate variables. Conclusions/Significance The epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon differs substantially between climate subzones. Development of an optimal comprehensive country-wide control strategy for cholera requires an understanding of the impact of the natural and built environment on transmission patterns at the local level, particularly in the setting of ongoing climate change. Author Summary Cholera was first reported in Cameroon in 1971. From 2000–2012, Cameroon reported on average 3,344.2 cases per year. When we divided the country into its four climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon), there were very different patterns of spatial clustering of health districts with elevated attack rates, as well as differing sets of ecological determinants of cases counts. In the northern Sudano-Sahelian climate subzone, reported cases tended to occur between July and September, during the rainy season; whereas, the southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest burden during the same rainy season. As cholera displays different epidemiological patterns by subzone, a single approach to controlling cholera for the whole nation does not appear to be viable. Additional prospective epidemiological studies are needed to further elucidate subzone-specific determinants of cholera burden, in order to provide sufficient evidence-based guidance for the formulation and assessment of regionally tailored intervention strategies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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