Modeling and Prediction of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease Spreading in China Incorporating Human Migration Data

Autor: Haijun Zhang, Yuxia Fu, Choujun Zhan, Chi K. Tse, Zhikang Lai
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Big Data
Viral Diseases
Time Factors
Epidemiology
Social Sciences
Model parameters
Transportation
02 engineering and technology
medicine.disease_cause
Geographical Locations
0302 clinical medicine
Medical Conditions
Disease spreading
Pandemic
Statistics
0202 electrical engineering
electronic engineering
information engineering
Medicine and Health Sciences
030212 general & internal medicine
Socioeconomics
Coronavirus
Travel
education.field_of_study
Multidisciplinary
Geography
Human migration
Mobile Applications
Infectious Diseases
Physical Sciences
Medicine
020201 artificial intelligence & image processing
Coronavirus Infections
Travel-Related Illness
Research Article
Optimization
China
Asia
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Science
Pneumonia
Viral
Population
Human Geography
Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Urban Geography
03 medical and health sciences
Betacoronavirus
medicine
Humans
Tracking data
Disease Dynamics
Cities
education
Pandemics
Estimation
SARS-CoV-2
business.industry
Outbreak
COVID-19
Covid 19
Models
Theoretical
People and Places
Earth Sciences
Human Mobility
business
Cell Phone
Mathematics
Demography
Zdroj: PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 10, p e0241171 (2020)
PLoS ONE
DOI: 10.1101/2020.02.18.20024570
Popis: This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China are collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Historical data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source are used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure is used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the coming months. Our results show that the number of infections in most cities in China will peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively. Funding Statement: This work was supported by National Science Foundation of China Project 61703355, Guangdong Youth University Innovative Talents Project 2016KQNCX223, and City University of Hong Kong under Special Fund 9380114. Declaration of Interests: None.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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